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☆ Premarket stocks: Could the Federal Reserve rule out rate cuts in 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Now, some are wondering if the central bank might not cut rates at all in 2024. He expects the central bank to cut rates two to four times this year. Plus, there’s no official indication that the central bank won’t cut rates this year. • If the neutral interest rate, or the rate that maintains full employment and stable inflation, is revised upward closer to 3.5%. The neutral rate should be 2.5%, based on Fed officials’ estimates for the central bank’s key interest rate, inflation and unemployment.

Persons: stoked, Stocks, won’t pare, ”, Tom Graff, Jerome Powell, Oliver Darcy, “, Eddy, Apple’s, Read, Here’s what’s, Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Deutsche Bank economists, ” Apple, Wednesday, Apple Sports, NBA, NHL, MLS, NCAA, NFL, MLB, ESPN, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, SAG Locations: New York, America

☆ A change to this one clause could be the most important part of the Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"We heard at the December meeting that no official expected to raise rates further as a baseline outcome. And we've heard that Fed officials are beginning the discussions around rate cuts," Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, said in an interview. Now, there's considerably more uncertainty as multiple statements from Fed officials point to a more cautious approach about declaring victory over inflation. The inflation rate judged by core personal consumption expenditures prices, a U.S. Department of Commerce measure that the Fed favors, indicates the real funds rate to be around 2.4%. Fed officials figure the long-run real rate to be closer to 0.5%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we've, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, He'll, Bill English Organizations: Federal, Washington , D.C, Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank's, Fed, U.S . Department of Commerce, Yale School of Management Locations: Washington ,

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ US recession will prompt 175 basis points in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. With the Fed rate currently at 5.25%-5.5%, that would reduce the rate to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. At the same time, the bank expects that the economic weakness "eases inflationary pressures," Ryan said. DB expects an initial cut of 50 basis points at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts over the rest of the year. The U.S. economy so far has appeared to stave off predictions of a recession even as the Fed has hiked rates by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Persons: Brett Ryan, “, ”, Ryan, Lewis Krauskopf, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Traders, Reuters, DB, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

[1/2] A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. They now expect the central bank's 'yield curve control' policy to end in October, compared with April 2024, and for the negative interest rate policy to end in January 2024, versus December 2024. Beyond the Japanese policy drama, investors will also have the latest Indian inflation and industrial production data, and Australian business and consumer sentiment figures to digest on Tuesday. The currency is getting little support from the interest rate outlook - economists currently expect the RBI to keep rates on hold then start easing policy the second quarter of next year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, of, Government Bond, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of India's, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Indonesian, Philippine, India, Australia, Korea

Just where that notional 'R-star' lies has been clouded by the wild supply-side distortions of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's energy shock. Raising R-star from recent low levels would probably increase uncertainty in markets about its longer-term level and direction too. On the other hand, if R-star is closer to zero, as Williams has suggested should be the case, current policy is too tight. Indeed, R-star is set to fall "slightly below zero," the New York Fed chief said, without giving a time frame. This suggests that the U.S. central bank's current policy rate target range of 5.00%-5.25% is already highly restrictive, and will soon need to come down.

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

☆ Euro zone economy ekes out 0.1% growth in first quarter, misses expectations as Germany stagnates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The print came in below analyst expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists previously forecasting quarterly growth of 0.2%. The economy expanded by 1.3% on an annual basis, just missing an outlook of 1.4%. Earlier this month, statistics agency Eurostat had revised down its fourth-quarter 2022 gross domestic product estimate for the euro zone from 0.1% quarterly growth to zero, following 0.4% expansion in the third quarter. The slight first-quarter growth signal comes as economic performance contends with persistently high inflation. Irish GDP was a notable weak spot, declining by 2.7% on the previous quarter, while Portugal's economy grew by 1.6%.

Persons: Arne Dedert, Carsten Brzeski, Destatis, Emmanuel Macron's Organizations: Getty, Eurostat, ING, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

☆ Markets expect Fed to lift policy rate above 5% by March
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will take its benchmark policy rate above 5% by March and keep it there for most of 2023 in a bid to squeeze inflation out of the world's biggest economy, traders of U.S. interest rate futures were betting on Thursday. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday delivered a fourth straight three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point interest rate increase. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a switch to smaller-sized rate hikes "may come as soon as the next meeting, or the one after that," he also said there is a still a "ways to go" in the rate-hiking cycle. The view is in sync with that of most analysts' notes following the Fed's policy meeting this week. HOT LABOR MARKETThe Fed's rate hikes - the most aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy in 40 years - are aimed at bringing down inflation running at more than three times the central bank's 2% target.

While investors largely expect the Fed to lift its policy rate by 75 basis points to the 3.00%-3.25% range, markets could be unsettled by the updated quarterly economic projections that will be released along with the policy statement. In July, Powell's comment that the Fed might move to smaller incremental rate increases was read as indicating an imminent policy pivot. "Risks still skew toward higher terminal policy rates and we expect a relatively hawkish FOMC meeting," Citi economists wrote on Tuesday. The European Central Bank, following the Fed, earlier this month raised its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for the first time ever; Sweden's central bank this week approved its first full-percentage-point increase in 30 years. The Bank of England and the central banks of Switzerland and Norway will meet this week, with markets expecting them to announce large rate hikes.

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